HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF AN UNPREDICTED NATURAL EVENT: A CASE OF STUDY OF COASTAL OF MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY TO A TSUNAMI IMPACT

An increasing concern about environmental issues, sustainable science and technology has emerged into global scale due to the actual population, development, economical conditions and social characteristics of humanity. Natural hazards have the characteristics of posing danger to social stability in our planet, and the magnitude of that effect will be linked to human vulnerability. The location of Puerto Rico, near to the Caribbean plate boundaries, poses a danger to the coastal area of the island due to a tsunami strike; personal, economical and infrastructural losses are linked to the preparedness and response time. The purpose of this project is to create a mathematical model to forecast and map the Social Vulnerability Score (SVS) due to the impact of a tsunami, based in the social structure and population distribution of the island. A special approach to the comparison of social vulnerability (including potential of life, infrastructure and economical losses) was applied to the Mayagüez municipality. Social Vulnerability in Mayagüez is evidenced to be mostly influenced by the economical and gender variables. The proposed model will contribute in the prevention, mitigation, preparedness and recovery, by risk identification of the coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico, public and private sectors, including the communities.