GEOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY - UNREALIZED POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING SOCIETAL DECISION-MAKING

More than 100 years ago, T.C. Chamberlin provided the geological community with one of its core analytical concepts; the “Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses.” Although Chamberlin’s methodology was derived from and for application to earth science, it is applicable to any situation where one must grapple with an open-ended set of facts to solve broad-based, amorphous problems outside of the scope of an existing conventional framework. In fact, Chamberlin’s methodology is applicable to societal problems. Thus, where social issues and geology intersect, geologists should aggressively engage in the public policy making process with public officials and attorneys.

Four topics/case-studies illustrate the applicability of multiple working hypotheses to societal problems: (1) mineral production supporting the quality of life; (2) geologic hazard management, particularly seismic and volcanic hazards; (3) climate change; and, (4) plate tectonics.

The loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs and related erosion of the U.S. middle class is a bipartisan issue. Domestic manufacturing cannot be competitive if it must import critical mineral feedstocks from monopolistic or distant foreign sources. Separately, the U.S. federal budget deficit is looming to cut funding for geologic sciences that are not perceived to contribute to the quality of life. The obvious commonality of interests regarding these issues suggests that the Geologic Society of America and the American Exploration and Mining Association could develop joint programs.

Intriguingly, geologic hazard programs seem to be a “success story” where geology has increased societal awareness in recent decades: examples include tsunami hazards in Oregon and USGS’ response immediately before the Pinatubo eruption. Global climate change is an area where geology should make major substantive contributions to a process that demonstrates the pitfalls of ignoring the multiple working hypothesis process. And, despite the theme of geology’s direct day-to-day contribution to society, more abstract scientific investigations are also important. For example, multiple working hypotheses are needed in the evaluation of the Intermountain Seismic Belt/East Pacific Rise plate tectonic model that has societal implications for the Rocky Mountain West...