EVALUATING THE STRENGTH OF ESCALATION AS A RESEARCH PROGRAM

The publication of the book Evolution and Escalation by Geerat Vermeij in 1987 is usually considered the start of modern escalation research. Since this beginning, escalation has been anything but a fixed theory in structure or content. The growth of escalation studies has led to the development of an increasing number of specific hypotheses derived from Vermeij's original formulation. Escalation has been supported in some tests of these hypotheses, but questioned in others. It remains unclear how results from these case studies should be evaluated collectively to assess the usefulness of the theory. Here I outline a methodological approach to synthesize the specific hypotheses to help the field evaluate evidence for and against escalation. My goal is to move the field forward by identifying the conditions under which hypotheses are supported, and which hypotheses should be revised or replaced.