ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND HAZARD VULNERABILTY IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT: A METHODOLOGY FOR COASTAL NATIONAL PARKS

The Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, in partnership with the National Park Service (NPS), has initiated an effort to standardize climate change and coastal hazard vulnerability assessments (VAs) of built assets in national parks. The goal is to standardize the methodologies and data used in VAs, allowing managers to compare the vulnerability of coastal assets across local, regional, and national levels.

Standard practice for VAs includes three metrics: exposure (the degree to which a system will experience a stressor), sensitivity (how the system fairs when exposed) and adaptive capacity (the ability of the system to sustain itself by adapting to the stressor). While this formula has been successfully applied to natural systems, some aspects are less appropriate for application in the built environment. For example, structures cannot inherently adapt to climate change or other hazards, while natural resources often can.

The new VA protocol for the built environment includes only exposure and sensitivity in the vulnerability score. The adaptive capacity is evaluated separately, and is not included in the final vulnerability. This does not mean the adaptive capacity of an asset is not important. Determining adaptive strategies for key vulnerable assets within a park is the final, and perhaps most important step in the overall analysis, as adaptive actions will help reduce an asset’s exposure or sensitivity, and in turn, its vulnerability.

The VA protocol is being piloted in a number of NPS units. Coastal parks were chosen as a starting point in the development of VAs because there is good digital data availability, and the trends of climate stressors (sea level) are well understood. For the exposure analysis, five indicators are analyzed and mapped for each asset: flooding, storm surge, sea-level rise, erosion/coastal proximity and historical flooding. Sensitivity analysis is conducted using asset management databases, federal data depositories, and direct assessment through a questionnaire completed by park staff. Adaptive strategies are evaluated through discussions with park personnel, park surveys, and facilitated workshops. This methodology can also be applied to additional natural hazards and climate stressors in non-coastal parks, as long as georeferenced hazard data exists or can be mapped.