DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR CO2 STORAGE: OVERVIEW AND AREAS OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) into geological formations is regarded as an important strategy for achieving a significant reduction in anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. This increasing emphasis on the commercialization and implementation of CCS has led to the development of system-wide mathematical models for the evaluation of the performance of potential geologic storage sites and the risk associated with this greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is conducting research to develop science-based methods to quantify the risks associated with long-term geologic storage of CO₂. Central to this research is the development of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) – a system-based integrated model that simulates the primary sub-system components of the storage system with the goal of elucidating the relationship between effective CO₂ storage and short- and long-term containment of the stored CO₂. The sub-system components, which include the reservoir, cap-rock seals, and above zone monitoring interval, wellbores, faults/fractures and groundwater, are modeled using reduced order models (ROMs), which are then linked together to characterize the performance of the entire storage system. This construction of the IAM permits an assessment of the storage risks in a more computationally efficient manner as compared to using the full physics-based models. In this work, we review the current status of IAM development efforts of NRAP, and assess the current state of development of the modeling efforts of each of the available sub-system ROMs. In addition, the areas of future development in the IAM structure are outlined followed by a brief description of future ROM development efforts.