2015 GSA Annual Meeting in Baltimore, Maryland, USA (1-4 November 2015)

Paper No. 54-3
Presentation Time: 2:10 PM

COMPARING OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT FLUX TO CHESAPEAKE TRIBUTARIES WITH PROCESS-BASED MODEL PREDICTIONS


BLOMQUIST, Joel D., US Geological Survey, 5522 Research Park Drive, Baltimore, MD 21228, MOYER, Douglas L., U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Water Science Center, 1730 East Parham Road, Richmond, VA 23228, KEISMAN, Jennifer L.D., USGS, Baltimore, United States, MD 20228, SEKELLICK, Andrew J., USGS, 5522 Research Park Drive, Baltimore, MD 21228 and SWEENEY, Jeff, USEPA, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Ave, Annapolis, MD 21403; USEPA, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Ave, Annapolis, jdblomqu@usgs.gov

Insights from monitoring programs and a suite of watershed and estuarine models are used to support Chesapeake Bay restoration. Monitoring data are critical components of model calibration, development, and application. Nine tributaries to Chesapeake Bay have been monitored for more than three decades as part of the River Input Monitoring Program. Nutrient and suspended-sediment flux histories and flow-normalized trends have been calculated for these rivers using the statistical tool Weighted Regressions on Time Discharge and Season (WRTDS). Changes in observed nutrient and suspended sediment fluxes were compared to expected changes due to land use change and management-practice implementation. These analyses provide critical insights into the response of watershed loading to environmental change. In turn, the results of these comparisons are being applied to improve modeling tools and to guide Chesapeake Watershed restoration actions.