ESTIMATION OF FLUID PRESSURE CHANGES CAUSED BY INJECTION WELLS NEAR THE JONES, OKLAHOMA EARTHQUAKE SWARM

A swarm of earthquakes near Jones, Oklahoma, began in 2008 and has been linked to high-rate disposal wells. Hydrogeologic modeling showed that the increase in subsurface pore pressure from fluid injection was likely sufficient to trigger earthquakes on optimally oriented, pre-existing faults (Keranen et al., 2014). The present study extends this modeling and considers a variety of new hydrogeologic scenarios. The permeability and compressibility of the Arbuckle formation, the disposal horizon for the high-rate disposal wells, are constrained by injection histories, wellhead pressure measurements, outcrop measurements and well logs. The location and extent of faults are inferred from relocated earthquake hypocenters and faults previously documented in the literature. We explore possible fault hydrogeologic properties to assess the potential range of fluid pressures changes at hypocentral locations in the Jones swarm. Sensitivity analysis of the permeability of the injection reservoir, the crystalline basement rock, and faults -- including those in the Jones area and the Nemaha Fault -- permits us to estimate a realistic range of fluid pressure changes from high-rate disposal wells.