DISCERNING CLIMATE, SEA LEVEL AND WATER MANAGEMENT EFFECTS ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN KARST ESTUARY

Between rising sea level and additional input of fresh water from upstream water management projects, the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) is likely to continue in a transient state. Standard-score analysis of climate, hydrologic and water quality disturbances can be used to capture scaled ecosystem dynamics in the karst estuary of coastal Everglades. We employed the standard score feature space method to show interaction of sea level, climate and water management variables with salinity and nutrient concentrations in the Shark River Slough site 4 (SRS4) and site 6 (SRS6). We used monthly averaged inflow to Shark River Slough through the upstream S12 structures, sea level records from Key West, along with rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and values of salinity, phosphorous, and nitrogen from SRS4 and SRS6 from January 2002 to December 2014. Results demonstrate that above average sea level correspond with above average flows of freshwater from the S12 maintaining salinity levels below average at both stations. The direct standard-score relation between S12 flows and sea level may indicate a strong link of water management response to sea level press. Above average S12 inflows correspond with below average concentrations of total phosphorus and nitrogen at both SRS4 and SRS6. At SRS4, rainfall and ET have opposite effects on salinity where above average ET generally corresponds with increasing salinity. The standard-score analysis can be used to predict the response of water quality parameters in the ecotone of Shark River Slough to hydrologic stresses.