STANDARDIZING CLIMATE CHANGE AND HAZARD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE: EXAMPLES FROM SIX COASTAL NATIONAL PARKS

The Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, in partnership with the National Park Service, has developed a new approach for assessing the natural hazard and climate change vulnerability of NPS infrastructure. This vulnerability assessment (VA) protocol standardizes the methodologies and data used, allowing managers to compare the vulnerability of assets across local, regional, and national levels. Asset-specific VA results can also be used by managers in developing short- and long-term adaptation strategies.

Standard practice for VAs includes three metrics: exposure (degree to which a system will experience a stressor), sensitivity (how a system fares when exposed), and adaptive capacity (ability of a system to sustain itself by adapting). The new protocol includes only exposure and sensitivity in the vulnerability score for each asset; adaptive capacity is evaluated separately. The rationale is that infrastructure does not have intrinsic adaptive capacity, like that of a natural system (e.g., salt marsh). Adaptive capacity for infrastructure depends on external influences, including cost, use, politics, historic value, and park mission. In fact, with an infrastructure VA, the adaptive capacity assessment helps managers identify potential actions for reducing the exposure or sensitivity of an asset and, in turn, its vulnerability.

The protocol has been applied at six coastal national parks within the southeastern U.S.: Biscayne National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Fort Raleigh National Historic Site, and Wright Brothers National Memorial. Coastal parks were chosen as a starting point for the VAs because of the availability of geo-referenced data for exposure mapping, as well as the clear trend for climate change stressors (e.g., sea level is rising in most locations). Over 1,000 structures and transportation assets were assessed within the six parks. More than one-third of the infrastructure was found to have high vulnerability using this methodology, with a combined value of over $1.8 billion.

This methodology need not be applied solely in parks, but could also be utilized in municipalities and other communities. Furthermore, the general VA protocol could be modified to assess other natural hazards and climate stressors.