SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL TO HELP IMPROVE THE IMPACT ANALYSIS CAUSED BY FRACING IN THE EAGLE FORD SHALE

The purpose of this study is to understand how System Dynamics (SD) modeling can be applied to help improve the impact analysis of the rapid growth caused by fracing in the Eagle Ford Shale. System Dynamics modeling is a way to show complex problems in a dynamic way. The Eagle Ford Shale is one such dynamic complex problem that has affected rural communities in South Texas by placing a heavy burden to their insufficient infrastructure and facilities, and by demanding proper manpower and expertise that the local governments lack to deal with such a rapid growth. In this study, a System Dynamics model will be prepared to help understand the structure of the system together rather than statistical analysis traditionally used in modeling to understand the causal relationships between the various impacts caused by the oil production. A Causal Loop Diagram will be developed to present the causal relationships using the feedback mechanism of the System Dynamics. Oil Production and Population will be used as the “Stocks” of the model and the growth rate will be use as the “Flows”. Other exogenous variables such as road infrastructure quality, water quantity and quality will be included in the model to show their causal effect on the main Stocks. This means that we will investigate their indirect effect on the main variable (Stocks). Data collected over the last ten years showing the effects of all of the stocks will be used as the reference modes to determine the model behavior and to help validate the model. It is expected that the project will provide the county and city administrators with a tool they can use to better prepare for the future.