IMPROVING THE IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHALE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN THE CITY OF COTULLA USING INDUSTRIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES

Since the onset of hydraulic fracturing of the non-porous rock, shale drilling has rapidly become one of the highest producing areas of natural gas and oil, with a positive economic impact on the communities located above and surround the formation. Shale drilling has provided 29 percent of total U.S. crude oil production and 40 percent of total U.S. natural gas production in 2012. Nonetheless, the rapid growth places a heavy burden on the rural communities due to the lack of infrastructure and facilities, and the fact that governments lack the proper manpower and expertise to deal with such a demand. Many studies have been undertaken, with most highlighting the economic boost and others focusing on the social and environmental impacts, independently but none has taken a holistic approach.

This project will develop a System Dynamics (SD) model to help improve the analysis of the social, economic, and environmental impacts caused by shale oil/gas production on rural communities. The model could be used as a tool to manage the rapid growth in any rural community that has been impacted by shale drilling. This SD approach will essentially help us to organize what we know, understand its cause and effect, and finally enable us to a deeper understanding of the interaction among different impacts and contributing factors and how each impacts each other. In essence, the leaders of these impacted communities will now have a tool that can help adjust to the proper infrastructure such as transportation, population increase, or the supply and demand of water, and/or even employment, education and police surveillance resources to ensure sustainable communities. In this paper, an overview of project including the study area, the process of shale drilling, and details of the various impacts caused by shale drilling in South Texas and the preliminary causal loop diagram showing the stocks and flows of the SD modeling and the reference modes used will be presented.