A HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RIO COBRE WATERSHED, JAMAICA

This paper presents the development of a hydrological model of the Rio Cobre Watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Developed using both available and derived data for the watershed, the model was used to assess present conditions and future changes within the watershed’s water balance. Future changes in the watershed’s water balance were assessed by incorporating downscaled climate model outputs up to the year 2100. Meteorological data converted and processed for use within SWAT included daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, wind speed and relative humidity. Geographical Informations System (GIS) data which were reclassified for use within SWAT were topography, land use and soil type. Historical stream flow data (1986-2015) from the Rio Cobre were used to calibrate and validate the model. The model adequately predicted the trends in daily stream flow during this period. The model indicates an increasingly negative water balance for the Rio Cobre Basin. This is due primarily to rainfall decline and increases in potential evaporation rates. Total water yield is expected to decrease among all three climate scenarios evaluated.