COGNITIVE PROCESSING IN METEOROLOGY: AN INVESTIGATION OF THE FORECASTING PROCESS

Our current knowledge of geologic thinking can enhance understanding of cognitive processes in other geoscience fields and vice versa. In particular, by making meteorological thinking visible, we can compare and contrast reasoning and spatial thinking across disciplines, and broaden our understanding of problem solving and decision making in multiple geoscience contexts. For example, research has identified visual penetrative ability as a spatial skill important to geologists’ ability to visualize the cross-section of a geologic object. Similarly, in earlier work, we identified disembedding as a spatial skill likely to influence a forecasters’ ability to locate fronts and other features on surface weather maps. Such comparative studies not only augment investigation of spatial thinking in individual disciplines, but also deepen our overall understanding of human cognition.

In this study, we adapted methods previously used to study field-based geologic problem solving to the context of meteorology by investigating the effect of multiple intelligence factors on weather forecast problem solving. Our participants spanned novices to experts, including students enrolled in university meteorology programs, meteorology faculty, National Weather Service forecasters and U.S. Navy forecasters. Participant performance on psychometric tests of spatial thinking ability and working memory and performance on a meteorology concept inventory were compared to performance on a novice-level weather forecasting problem. We also collected think-aloud data from a subset of participants who externalized their decision-making and thought processes as they completed the weather forecasting problem. Our results revealed individual effects of spatial thinking, working memory, meteorology knowledge and expertise on weather forecast problem solving and characterized the interplay between these factors. Furthermore, analysis of the think-aloud data, which conveyed forecasters’ actions and expressions, contributed insightful findings that enhanced our understanding of the forecasters’ thinking and cognitive processes. In addition to sharing our findings in the context of meteorology, we will interpret results within the larger geoscience framework and discuss implications for geoscience education.