ANTARCTICA AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

The possibility of catastrophic sea level rise is one of the most frequently-used arguments that addressing anthropogenic climate change is urgent. Yet, the range of future sea-level rise projections over the next few centuries remains very large, primarily because of the insufficient knowledge about the fate of the Antarctic ice sheet. The long timescales involved, coupled with the relatively short observing period to date, means that detection of the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to anthropogenic change is challenging, and is likely to remain equivocal for many more decades. I will review the evidence for why the Antarctic ice sheet is changing now, how it is likely to change in the future, and discuss the implications for policy in the face of this kind of uncertainty.