A BAYESIAN INVERSION APPROACH FOR RECONSTRUCTING SOLAR SYSTEM BEHAVIOR AND EARTH-MOON HISTORY (Invited Presentation)

The astronomical theory of climate provides a powerful framework for developing high-resolution geologic time scales and evaluating Earth System evolution. Its application in deep time, however, is ultimately limited by uncertainties in our knowledge of the theoretical astronomical cycles and by inadequate temporal control (e.g., radioisotopic dates) to confirm the astronomical hypothesis. Here, we present a new Bayesian inversion approach to address these challenges, building upon the TimeOpt regression model framework of Meyers (2015). The statistical technique quantifies – directly from stratigraphic data – the posterior distributions for the astronomical periods (eccentricity and precession), the fundamental frequencies (g₁ to g₅) of the Solar System, the precession constant (k), and the underlying geologic time scale. An additional product is a reconstruction of the Earth-Moon system history (Earth-Moon distance and length of day) that is independent from previous estimates using tidal deposits and bioarchives. Finally, the technique produces robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods for deep time investigations, and provides an objective means to integrate radioisotopic data with ‘floating’ astrochronologies.

Meyers, S. R. (2015), The evaluation of eccentricity-related amplitude modulation and bundling in paleoclimate data: An inverse approach for astrochronologic testing and time scale optimization, Paleoceanography, 30, doi:10.1002/2015PA002850.