WATER SCIENCE NODE – FORECASTING WATER RESILIENCE ALONG THE NEW 100TH MERIDIAN

The overarching goal for the Water Science Node of the New 100^th Meridian project is to quantitatively forecast water resiliency in Texas in the next 50-100 years, during which time urban centers along the 100^th Meridian (McAllen-San Antonio-Austin-DFW) are projected to experience rapid population growth and increasingly arid climatic conditions. As part of this research network, water science connects climate and demographics so that human and policy decisions lead to decreased uncertainty in water resources and resilient societies. To do so, we need to increase dynamic (real-time) data collection on the significant water sources in Texas, including groundwater, surface water, soil moisture and precipitation, as well as the major water users and key processes (biophysical and human-mediated) affecting water resource availability. We are investigating the use of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) capable of simulating, at the state-wide scale, interactions between biophysical and human-mediated (economic, demographic) processes. We also are scaling down our analyses directly to the watershed level and assessing the spatio-temporal variability of baseflow under seasonal and climate influences. The stream gain-loss studies are focused on the Edward Aquifer area and the Llano River Watershed, and will represent case studies for how watershed-scale knowledge of hydrologic processes can be used in upscaled, state-wide models. We will describe our current research, how the approaches and outcomes connect to the other science nodes in the Texas Water Research Network, and potential future directions.