A PHYLOGENETIC PERSPECTIVE TO ESTIMATING SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION RATES FROM STRATIGRAPHIC RANGES (Invited Presentation)

Speciation and extinction rates are key parameters used to describe and understand long-term evolutionary processes. The fossil record provides evidence for constraining diversification rates in deep time but reliable inference will depend critically on how incomplete and non-uniform sampling is incorporated into analyses. Traditional approaches used to infer rates from the fossil record do not explicitly incorporate diversification and sampling as processes, and strategies used to mitigate the impact of sampling bias typically involve subsampling or eliminating data. Recent developments in models of phylogenetic branching processes, including the fossilized birth-death (FBD) range model, provide a framework for process-based inference of fossil data. These models can be applied to estimate speciation and extinction rates from stratigraphic ranges, with or without information about the underlying phylogeny. I present the advantages of this approach using simulations, comparison to other methods and empirical data. By explicitly incorporating incomplete fossil and species sampling, the FBD range model enables us to utilize all available samples, including extant singletons, leading to robust inference even when fossil sampling is sparse. In addition, extensions of this approach enable the estimation of rates across multiple geological intervals simultaneously under different sampling scenarios, and allow for rates to be linked to external biological and geological processes. A phylogenetic process-based framework provides an improved basis for disentangling diversification and sampling parameters and an opportunity for coupling evolutionary and geological dynamics.