MODELING IRRIGATED PUMPING DATA FOR THE HIGH PLAINS AQUIFER IN WESTERN KANSAS

The High Plains Aquifer is a predominant resource for irrigated agriculture in Western Kansas. However, prolonged rates of pumping have depleted the supply faster than it can naturally be replenished. Here, we analyze pumping data from almost 5,000 wells from 1990-2013 to identify trends between water pumping and groundwater decline. We applied a water-balance sustainability model to extrapolate regional pumping rates to better inform water conservation strategies and end-user decision making. We found the correlation between pumping and water level change to be nonlinear, where a moderate amount of pumping led to the greatest water level decline. We then explore other degrees of complexity by applying a polynomial fit model to represent the data. Results from this study can be used as pilot data for research questions focused on water use decision making and aquifer sustainability.