DEVELOPMENT OF MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY-WATER NEXUS

The natural water system and engineered energy system are intrinsically interconnected. The changing climate, increase in weather/hydrologic extremes, future growth in population and energy-water demands, and rapidly evolving technologies and policy in energy and water spaces increase the complexity and uncertainty of energy-water systems interactions. Modeling the evolving energy-water nexus (EWN) at regional to local scales requires integrated methods to identify both large- and fine-scale dynamics, to forecast responses of evolving systems under changing external stresses and critical dependencies, and to explore and mitigate “emergent” risks. Recently, we have developed an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF), which links multiple existing or newly developed models for water system and various sectors. The framework is initially designed to simulate the nexus of regional water system and electricity power grid through interactions at local reach/reservoir and water sensitive power plants. The IWESAF includes an extreme climate event generator to predict future extreme weather/hydrologic events, hydrologic and reservoir models, riverine temperature model, thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, hydropower routing and generation model, and power grid operation and cost optimization model. The models were validated for most of power plants that use water intensively in the nation. A case study was developed for a Midwest region to explore effects of water system on power grid under extreme drought and heat wave events. The assessment with the IWESAF provide insights of interactions of energy-water systems, the potential risk of failure to meet the demand, and the economic consequence.