THE COLLECTIVE IMPACT OF DIMINISHING LONG-TERM WATER SECURITY IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS

As Oklahoma and North Texas transition into the 21st Century, the region’s water supply faces mounting pressure from increasing population, growing demand, and a warming climate. The goal of my research is to produce a risk assessment of the water supply of 238 counties in Oklahoma and North Texas assuming the region’s current rate of water consumption remains unchanged. Data on water supply and demand over the past two decades from government agencies is quantified into a linear relationship and projected through 2100 to determine demand on the surface and groundwater supply. Additionally, regional climate data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project is analyzed to track rising environmental pressure on water from as early as 2000 to as late as 2100. Initial findings indicate that, at current demand and predicted climate alteration, some counties will face significant water supply depletion over the next hundred years. Demand is expected to continue rising as both the rate of aquifer recharge and annual precipitation fall. Industrial surface and groundwater withdrawals alone are projected to increase from 4.5 and 32.5 million acre feet to 17 and 62.5 million acre feet in Oklahoma and Texas respectively in 2025-2100. Counties in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, where initial supply is already low from decades of overuse, are at a even more significant risk of accelerated groundwater depletion. Consequently, I hypothesize that the combination of these factors will see Oklahoma and North Texas facing significant water resource insecurity through 2100. Research will be presented tracking this surface and groundwater depletion and chronologically dating when these counties’ water use will become unsustainable.