IMPACT OF URBANIZING POPULATIONS ON PER CAPITA ALLOCATION AND ESTIMATED LIFETIME OF NON-METALLIC INDUSTRIAL MINERALS

Non-metallic industrial minerals are necessary for modern society, yet current production and consumption rates are not sustainable as the increasingly urban and technologically advanced world we live in requires more resources per capita. The Human Natural Resource Endowment (HNRE) calculates per capita resource allocation as a measure of the impact of natural resource exploitation and world population on future resource quantity. Using USGS Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities and UN World Population Prospects data we document the historic trend of HNRE from the dawn of industrialization to present. Although production of non-metallic industrial minerals increases exponentially with exponentially growing population, the historic trend of HNRE declines linearly toward zero over time. The exponentially increasing production of natural resources is driven by exponential population growth and associated exponential resource demand. Consequently, increasing reserves does not appreciably increase resource lifetimes, which end in 2030. Rapidly growing population and increasing resource intensity of technologic civilization are the true drivers of resource exhaustion. These factors correlate to increasing urbanization trends; global urban population rose exponentially by 3% annually from 1950 to 2018. The growth of urban population versus global production is highly correlated (r² = 0.97). Per capita consumption over time is more complex; though consumption increases over time it does so exponentially from 1900-1973 before becoming static for several decades, then rises linearly from 2000 onward. Regarding the overall trend in consumption, urban populations require more resources as infrastructure develops and per capita allocation increases as developing societies become more technologically advanced. Although quality of life is improving globally as our world grows increasingly urbanized and technologically advanced, declining HNRE over time demonstrates that the rate at which we are extracting non-metallic industrial minerals to do so does not provide a sustainable future.