TOWARD HOLISTIC PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR COASTS

We all know that from a geoscience perspective coasts are dynamic systems at time scales from millennia to months. During extreme episodic events change can be rapid and sometimes irreversible. Superimposed on, and at some scales interacting with, the geophysical, is the biotic with its own dynamics, and the people. Truly planning for the future of our coasts requires appreciation of the interactions among them all. Coastal Louisiana has experienced rapid change in the 20^th century, both landscape degradation and economic development, and planning for a sustainable coast in the 21^st century is challenged by the need to balance progressive and episodic physical and ecological processes with human needs.

Bringing to bear decades of research, extensive monitoring data, and simulation models, the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan considers how hazards such as sea-level rise, subsidence, and hurricane storms surges, change the coastal landscape and the implications for future coastal flood risk. How the human system is impacted by these changes can be broadly assessed in terms of economic damages, changes in the distribution of habitats for important fishery species, and changes in freshwater availability for agriculture. But human systems also respond to physical change – by adapting or simply retreating.

Incorporating those dynamics into future planning requires an even more integrated scientific approach, and the recognition that coastal communities are diverse in their needs. Translating geophysical hazards into economic damages, a frequently used decision support approach, fails to account for demographic and cultural diversity. Who is being affected by the hazards? Are more vulnerable populations at more risk than those less vulnerable? Whose livelihood is being impacted? Just as salt marshes respond to sea-level rise, people respond to flooding. Holistic planning for the coastal zone must leverage a wide array of data and skills and think broadly about future needs. Implementing those plans should be based on an appreciation that sensitivity and fairness must be shown to those whose homes, lands, livelihoods, and ways of life may be affected, in the near term and long term, by actions we take.