APPLICATIONS AND CAVEATS OF INVERSE MODELING TO RECONSTRUCT TROPICAL CYCLONES

The relationship between climate change and tropical cyclone patterns is difficult to accurately constrain, largely due to a limited historic record. To extend our understanding into the past two millennia, storm-induced overwash deposits in coastal ponds and salt marshes are a reliable proxy for tropical cyclone frequency. Recent research has attempted to use grain-size distributions of overwash deposits and hurricane-induced event beds to estimate the intensity of past tropical cyclones. Here, we present an updated inverse modeling technique applied to overwash deposits in two different environments in coastal New England. This inverse modeling technique, when appropriately calibrated with synthetic storm records to determine offshore wind and wave properties, produces mean wind speed values consistent with observational and estimated values for historic storms. Further investigation suggests that grain-size and deposition trends in these environments are more complex and nuanced than originally assumed. Application of the inverse modeling technique, therefore, must be assessed and validated at each particular setting before application in paleo-storm reconstructions.