ARCHEOLOGICAL RECORD AND SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE DELAWARE BAY

The Delaware Bay is the second largest estuary along the U.S. Atlantic coast that has been occupied by humans since Paleoindian period (22,000 B.P). Most of the estuarine shoreline is fringed by salt marshes that have been developing for the past 2,000 years but are now being lost at various rates. Sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to natural and historical resources present in the low-lying coastal areas. We identified 375 archeological sites surrounded by coastal wetlands and 2025 located in adjacent uplands. Applying probabilistic SLR projections (5, 50 an 95% levels) for 21^st and 22^nd centuries based on IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario we predict that up to 19.5 % of archeological sites (330 in Delaware and 139 in New Jersey) will be lost due to SLR by 2100.

Using geoarchaeological approach we conducted paleo-landscape reconstructions at Sheppard’s Island, DE, Island Field, DE and East Point, NJ archeological sites in order to reveal connections between human settlement and coastal environments. Using stratigraphic data, ArcGIS modeling, and SLR history, we reconstructed the Holocene coastal landscape at selected sites and developed predictions for future changes.

Our multi-disciplinary approach will help to prioritize protection of Delaware Bay heritage resources and promote the development of stakeholder partnerships for future resources conservation and/or management.