EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A WARMING CLIMATE (Invited Presentation)

To understand how tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories evolve in a changing climate, we investigate the tracks of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850-1800 CE) to the future (2080-2100 CE). Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), more TCs travel within 100 km of Boston, Massachusetts, (P > 0.99) and Norfolk, Virginia (P > 0.95) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. TCs are also more likely to form closer to the U.S. southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial era to future. These findings suggest critical changes to both the proximity of TCs to the U.S. Atlantic coastlines and the speed with which TCs travel in the North Atlantic.