TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING

“Earthquake prediction” has been a goal of unsuccessful empirical research for many years. Therefore, in the past five decades, large number of resources was devoted to the earthquake hazard maps based on the statistical and probabilistic approaches, often called the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). In the last two decades, a very successful alternative to the PSHA modelling was found to be application of chaotic synchronisation theory in seismology. The pioneering studies on the chaotic synchronisations in the relationship to earthquakes were highly theoretical and lacked the direct applicative power. The turning point was achieved in the last five years based on new advances related to repeating earthquake sequences, developments in the Cosserat theory of faulting and earthquakes, and discovery of the slow solitary waves called strain or tectonic waves. The complete Cosserat theory of faulting and earthquakes was published in 2018, named “the Omega-theory”. This new theory offered a unifying mathematical framework to describe and answer the most pressing and unexamined dilemmas of earthquake sequences, chaotic synchronizations and tectonic waves. In the last five years, we developed the so-called Quantectum Earthquake Forecasting System (QEFS) that tests the benefits and limitations of the earthquake forecasting following the Omega-Theory. The QEFS shows that the key to the time-dependent earthquake probabilities and earthquake forecasting is analysis of synchronisations of earthquakes and propagation of tectonic waves through the Earth’s crust. Here we present statistical analysis of many recent moderate to large earthquakes. Based on the results of the QEFS, we conclude that earthquakes can be forecasted with high probabilities in a specific time frame, and that the earthquake forecasting can be solved, both theoretically and practically.