MODEL-BASED COASTAL HAZARD ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
The first three phases of the framework involve 1) an evaluation of the existing coastal condition and identification of the natural and built resources in a community; 2) determining the temporal horizons for the for assessment of sea-level rise, associated coastal hazards (e.g., erosion, storms), and adaptation strategies; and 3) identifying the key community objectives for resource protection and evaluation of adaptation response strategies. Adaptation response strategies include protect, accommodate, retreat, and no action.
In phase four, modeling approaches are used to evaluate combinations of adaptation strategies for their likelihood of success and to identify potentially unforeseen consequences. The final evaluation requires knowledge of the physical processes driving coastal response to sea-level rise and other coastal hazards. Various models (e.g. conceptual, analytical, numerical) are available to evaluate likely outcomes of adaptation strategy implementation and the type of model chosen can be determined by the level of uncertainty tolerance. If uncertainty tolerance is high, simple models such as conceptual models or one-line models can be applied and evaluated. For lower uncertainty tolerances, more complex numerical or probabilistic-type models can be advantageous.