CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL HAZARD VULNERABILITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN NATIONAL PARKS: ADAPTATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COASTS

The Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, in partnership with the National Park Service (NPS), has established an approach for assessing the climate change and coastal hazard vulnerability of NPS infrastructure. This vulnerability assessment (VA) protocol standardizes the methodologies and data used, allowing managers to compare the vulnerability of assets across local, regional, and national levels. Asset-specific results can also be used to develop short- and long-term adaptation strategies.

This VA protocol evaluates multiple coastal hazards, including sea-level rise, flooding, storm surge, tsunami, coastal erosion, and cliff retreat. Exposure and sensitivity are assessed to determine vulnerability for each asset; adaptive capacity is evaluated separately. Adaptive capacity for infrastructure depends on external influences, including cost, use, politics, and historic significance. In fact, the adaptive capacity evaluation process helps managers identify potential actions for reducing the exposure or sensitivity of an asset and, in turn, its vulnerability. Since 2015, this protocol has been applied at 25 coastal national parks. Currently, assessments are underway at the 17 remaining coastal parks in the NPS South Atlantic-Gulf Region.

Recent storms have provided an opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of the VA protocol at multiple parks. For example, Hurricane Dorian (2019) severely impacted the North Carolina coast, including Cape Lookout National Seashore. Along North Core Banks, sound-side storm surge created over 90 ebb channels, and severely damaged NPS infrastructure; island-wide sand road access remains restricted to this day. Post-storm damage reports from Long Point Campground and Portsmouth Village confirmed the results of our VA completed in 2016. In addition, Dorian provided an opportunity to help the NPS develop long-term adaptation and relocation strategies for highly vulnerable infrastructure at Cape Lookout.

Storms like Dorian underscore the need for managers to be more proactive to coastal hazards in the context of changing climate. With the completion of these VAs in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region, the NPS will have taken a critical first step toward developing, and implementing long-term resilience and adaption plans for vulnerable infrastructure.