A PRACTICAL ANALYSIS TO CRITICAL MINERAL SUPPLY CHAINS FOR U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES: A CASE STUDY OF COBALT

U.S. government agencies are taking action to analyze key vulnerabilities in vital critical mineral supply chains necessary to maintaining America’s competitive edge in the energy transition. There is currently a lack of streamlined methodological approaches to studying supply chain dynamics at a systems level. We have partnered with the U.S. Department of State to develop a procedure for identifying how increasing demand will impact conflict, markets, geopolitics, technology trends, the environment, and human security. We tested this procedure on the cobalt supply chain, which is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and in China.

The toolkit includes four components: risk, market, environmental, and policy analysis. Each component uses a mixed-methods approach, tapping into mining databases, conflict mapping, trade statistics, supply chain indexes, and GIS technology. Our multidimensional approach can be modified as needed and is meant to identify key opportunities and obstacles for U.S. government agencies. The output of this methodology answers key questions related to any critical resource while avoiding oversimplification of complex networks by accounting for all the major components of mineral supply chains. Our toolkit creates a common language experts in disparate disciplines can use to better communicate policy. We chose to investigate the cobalt supply chain as a proof of concept.

Current cobalt mining practices are plagued by political corruption, child labor, environmental degradation, and human security issues. Strategic deposits in the U.S. and polymetallic nodules on the seafloor provide potential alternatives to meet sustainable demand by 2050. Increased funding for research and development, market signaling, and industry collaboration is essential. Failure of U.S. political institutions to respond will limit electric vehicle and green technology implementation and diminish America’s role as a leader in the energy transition and climate change dilemma.