ASSESMENT OF ECONOMIC LOSS AND CASUALTIES DUE TO EARTHQUAKES OF DIFFERENT MAGNITUDES AT THE NEW MADRID FAULT ZONE

The New Madrid Fault Zone (NMFZ) is one of the active tectonic zones capable of producing big earthquakes in southcentral USA. The key objective of this study is to assess the economic loss and casualties that might be caused by different magnitudes of seismic events at NMFZ. The manifestation of the seismic impact is computed and visualized using the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) that occurred during the earthquake shaking. It is calculated using an attenuation function that correlats the intensity of local ground movement, the earthquake magnitude, and the distance from its epicenter; however, in this study we are considering the distance from the fault trace instead as it represents the weaker spots for both rupture and damage. The assessment of casualties is conducted at three different times, including daytime (2 pm), nighttime (2 am), and commute time (5 pm), as these are the most vulnerable times during a seismic event. Statewide baseline inventories for buildings, essential facilities, and infrastructure, as well as liquefaction data are obtained from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and FEMA’s Hazus MH 5.1 software is utilized to acomplish this research. The main methodology steps include aggregating the study area, creating probabilistic scenarios to run the analysis for PGA, and generating damage reports using existing attenuation functions to show the decay with distances. This is a work-in-progress encompassing the NMFZ surrounding states and outcomes are anticipated to be helpful for earthquake preparedness and economic loss mitigation in these states.