ESTIMATING THE NET EFFECT OF FUNCTIONAL TRAITS ON EXTINCTION IN PLIOCENE TO MODERN MOLLUSKS

The influence of functional traits on species survivorship has been evaluated in various contexts in both modern and ancient ecosystems, but an important direction for research is to integrate datasets that include both extinct and extant taxa. This approach can provide a more reliable understanding of the effects of functional traits on macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics. Knowledge of the links between individual traits and survivorship is crucial for developing accurate extinction risk predictive models.

Here we test the impact of numerous functional traits on the survival and extinction of species through time, using bivalve and gastropod species from the rich fossil record of the western Atlantic over the last ~3 million years, along with the associated extant biota. We also compare the impact of these organismic traits on survival relative to a group level trait: geographic distribution. Analyses use a dataset of 12 functional traits including life habit, feeding behavior and basal metabolic rate (BMR), for 115 species from 36 families. Traits were observed and measured from specimens in the collections of the Paleontological Research Institution, Florida Museum of Natural History, and University of Kansas, as well as surveys of the literature and online databases such as the Neogene Marine Biota of Tropical America (NMITA).

Results derived from Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) show there is a clear distinction between extinct and extant species, overall, when comparing them based on life habit, maximum body size, shell composition and BMR. Most traits showed little direct relation with survival, except BMR and associated maximum body size, supporting the Metabolic Theory of Ecology. Since many functional traits do not explain survival, their function may be mis- or over-interpreted, and traits posited to represent important organismic adaptations may not play a prominent role in long-term species survival, especially during the major climate changes over the last ~ 3 million years. Some traits do show significant interactions, and these were more fully explored using additional multivariate analyses. The relative importance of geographic range size suggests group-level characters may be the primary determinant of extinction patterns over macroevolutionary time scales.