ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF ECOLOGICALLY IMPORTANT CARIBBEAN CORAL SPECIES

Global warming and human impacts continue to be devastating for coral reef systems. Caribbean reefs have been adversely affected by a variety of threats including elevated ocean temperatures, increased nutrient pollution, ocean acidification, and overfishing. To mitigate the effects of changing climates, it is important to understand how ecologically important coral species in the Caribbean (i.e., Acropora cervicornis, Acropora palmata, Agaricia agaricites, Colpophylia natans, Diploria labyrinthiformis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Orbicella annularis, Siderastrea siderea) are impacted by these threats. This project utilized PaleoEcological Niche Modeling (PaleoENM) to assess locations of suitable habitat for Caribbean coral species. Models from the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, the modern ocean, and future projections were developed to determine which environmental variables are most important to these species, how niche occupancy changes, and how locations of suitable habitat shift over time. Preliminary results indicate that coral habitat in the Caribbean decreases significantly under future climate projections and that there is a documented niche shift in Acropora palmata, Acropora cervicornis, and Orbicella annularis from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene. Since ENMs assume a stable niche, utilizing the fossil record should allow this project to obtain a more complete picture of the coral’s fundamental niche and make better predictions about coral habitat in the future.