GROUND TEMPERATURE MODELING OF THE HIGH DRY ANDES AT EL ALTAR, ARGENTINA: IMPLICATIONS FOR ALPINE PERMAFROST MAPPING

In recent decades, many studies have attempted to map the extent of permafrost in the High Dry Andes with the goal of quantifying its seasonal meltwater contribution to the hydrologic budget of major population centers in adjacent areas. Our study specifically focuses on changes to the areal extent of alpine permafrost in the El Altar study site in San Juan, Argentina. Continued climate warming trends coupled with regional scale climate variability from El Nino/La Nina variations directly affect persistence of alpine permafrost in this region. We have developed predictive models of likely permafrost areas in an attempt to better measure strategic freshwater reserves in the study area using multivariate statistical analyses of ground-surface temperatures, solar radiation, and geographic parameters (currently, the most common approach). To determine and compare the areal extent of permafrost in our study area over time, we compare and contrast maps developed from our statistical models from three consecutive years from 2012 to 2015. Individual sensors record differences in average annual ground surface temperatures ranging from 1.11^oC to 0.2^oC. When compared to our decade long climate data from the site, our data suggests that decadal climate variability may have a significant effect on the short term extent of permafrost. We are able to compare our model output with physical observations to better improve not only our predictive models of permafrost extent, but also to improve our understanding of the changing conditions that will likely exacerbate the loss of permafrost in the study region.