VOLCANIC EMISSIONS FROM HIGH VEI ERUPTIONS IMPACT ON ARCTIC SEA ICE

Explosive eruptions cause cooling trends when sufficient sulfur dioxide (SO²) is injected into the stratosphere. These short-term cooling periods can be regional or global and can last for a couple months to over a year depending on the size of the eruption, the emissions ejected, and the locations of the volcano. With this in mind, volcanic cooling events could impact the rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice. Sea ice in the Arctic has been diminishing at alarming rates and while many climate drivers reinforce this effect, there is potential for volcanic eruptions to limit this decline.

Using sea ice records from 1980 to 2022 we considered the maximum and minimum of sea ice extent and area annually. We documented when sea ice decreased and increased and the amount this change occurred. Next, we collected eruption history and created two classifications: global and regional. To create parameters for which eruptions would be considered for this research, we established a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) minimum for each and a latitude constraint. Regional eruptions had to maintain a minimum VEI of 3 and stand above the 60^th Parallel north, whereas global eruptions were below this parallel and had a VEI 4 and higher. Comparing the quantity of SO² released from each of the considered eruptions and the flux in sea ice we paid close attention to patterns that demonstrated a positive impact that allowed sea ice to either increase, or at the very least limit the decrease. Preliminary results suggest that with sufficient SO² emissions an explosive eruption can offset climate warming and allow for an increase in sea ice in the following year after the eruption.