REAL-TIME EVACUATION DECISION MAKING AND MESSAGING DURING WILDLAND FIRE EVENTS: A CASE STUDY OF ASHLAND, OREGON AND ADA COUNTY, IDAHO

Large-scale wildland fire evacuations require pre-planning and coordination to effectively carry out real-time wildfire responses by (often) a myriad of different agencies. Over the past four decades, wildfire frequency and intensity have surged, resulting in a doubling of the average annual burn area. This escalation is compounded by rapid population expansion into the wildland-urban interface (WUI), creating an increasing and dire need for greater planning, organization, and coordination preparedness. This case study focuses on real-time responses of local wildfire authorities using two approaches: 1) interviewing emergency managers regarding the hierarchical and decision-making process within their respective jurisdictions; and 2) Using FlamMap wildfire simulations in tabletop exercises to gauge real-time evacuation and messaging protocols. Collaboration with three WUI communities across two states enables us to identify factors influencing critical evacuation decision-making management action points for emergency personnel, and to explore resident evacuation intention between communities who have experienced a recent evacuation (City of Ashland, OR) relative to those who have not (Ada County, ID). We will describe how we developed and shared community-based wildfire evacuation scenarios with study area residents to explore the drivers of evacuation behavior and evacuation intentions, assessing the behavioral household response to wildfire evacuation and messaging warnings. Our shared results will also facilitate the refinement of pre-event hazard strategies used to foster greater community engagement and enhance local authorities’ preparedness and evacuation planning efforts.