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Paper No. 43-8
Presentation Time: 8:00 AM-5:30 PM
ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ON FLIGHT DISRUPTIONS
Geomagnetic storms, which result from intense solar activity such as solar flares, are known to produce fierce emission of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere. When coupled with other eruptive solar events like coronal mass ejections, solar storms can disrupt the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.
Between 2023 and 2024, there were about 3773 flights from JFK to LAX; of those flights, 30.4% were delayed. During this same year, around 50 geomagnetic storms occurred, which may have influenced some of these flights.
This study aims to investigate the potential impact of geomagnetic storms on flight times and delays by analyzing the deviations from scheduled flight times and delayed flights. This data was generously provided by the Port Authority of NY and NJ.
The possible reasons for these delays include disruptions to sensitive aviation systems such as navigation systems, GPS, and communication systems, which are critical for maintaining flight paths. The study explores the potential correlation between geomagnetic storm occurrences and flight delays or cancellations.
The data obtained included: date and time of each flight, if the flight was delayed, and the amount of time the flight was delayed. The reason for each delay was not contained in the dataset and will be incorporated into future research.
A linear regression model was used to analyze flight and geomagnetic storm data to determine if there was a correlation between delays and storms.
No strong correlations were found between flight delay and the following geomagnetic storm-related parameters: storm distance, storm speed, Planetary K-Index (kp) maximum, North-South orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), equivalent amplitude of magnetic activity (Ap), and total strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bt).
This suggests that delay is not significantly influenced by these parameters. However, this could reflect the very limited public data on geomagnetic storms. In the future the model will be reevaluated and attempts to gather more data will be made in order to create a more precise model.