RISK MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

Climate change has become a catalyst for the re-evaluation of risk management for the planning and design of infrastructure. With extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity as a result of climate change, prior assumptions regarding what constituted 100 or even 500-year return periods for consideration in development of a 100-year design life for infrastructure must be reconsidered. Effective risk management, implemented at the planning and early stages of design for any major infrastructure project, is the cornerstone to ensuring longevity in the life-span of any structure. With climate change rapidly shifting the landscape of considerations for extreme weather events it is apparent that a holistic approach, blending engineering, scientific knowledge, and proactive risk management, is crucial. Collaboration between civil engineering and climate disciplines, foremost climatology along with predictive risk management is essential for adaptive designs, hazard mitigation, and sustainable development in evolving climates.

For regions experiencing increased precipitation rates as a result of climate change, concerns about natural terrain stability and an increased occurrence of landslides results in significant infrastructure damage. Increased precipitation rates can intensify soil erosion and soil saturation resulting in increased instability and a higher risk of slope failure. Infrastructure failure results in human losses, economic impacts, societal disruption, and hampers emergency response and recovery efforts. Understanding the strong interplay between climate change, land use changes, geomorphological characteristics, and their collective influence on slope stability, landslide development, and infrastructure integrity is essential for infrastructure planning in affected regions. Two case studies from South America, Colombia's Ruta-del-Sol and the K-58 on the Bogotá - Villavicencio road, will be discussed, including an analysis of the effect of climate change, specifically the impact of increased precipitation rates during La Niña climate patterns, on the stability of natural slopes. Further, the discussion will include how the risk probability and severity of relevant extreme climate events were determined and incorporated in the planning and design process.