GSA Connects 2024 Meeting in Anaheim, California

Paper No. 102-13
Presentation Time: 8:00 AM-5:30 PM

FORECASTING LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES AND IDENTIFYING HOT SPOTS IN THE TRI-CITIES, TENNESSEE


ISHAN, Rezaul Bari, Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, 1276 Gilbreath Dr., Johnson city, TN 37614 and LUFFMAN, Ingrid, Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614

The southeastern United States, including Tennessee and the Tri-Cities, has experienced notable LULC changes, with urban expansion leading to increased developed land and population growth in the last two decades. The Tri-Cities municipal database indicates a 15% augmentation in land area after 2000, concurrent with heightened urban development. This study examines hotspots of built-up areas and transitions from vegetation to built-up in Tri-Cities, Tennessee, from 2000 to 2021 due to city boundary expansion, forecasts the LULC change in this region for the year 2041, investigates spatial clustering of built-up areas and identifies hotspots within their distributions. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) data at a 30m resolution for 2001 and 2021 were downloaded from the National Land Cover Database. Among sixteen categories of land use type, developed land categories are reclassified as built-up area, and deciduous forest, evergreen forest, mixed forest, shrub/scrub, herbaceous, pasture/hay, and cultivated crops land are reclassified as vegetation land. The Nearest Neighbor Index (NNI) analysis was employed for spatial clustering detection, with cluster locations identified using the Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical Clustering (NNHC) method. The study employed Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to identify hotspots for built-up areas utilizing the quartic interpolation method. Johnson City and Kingsport highlight substantial city boundary expansion from 2001 to 2010, while Bristol exhibits limited territorial growth. LULC change from 2001 to 2021 yields NNI values of 0.3182 for built-up areas and 0.2157 for converted built-up areas from vegetation land, indicating clustered incidents for both events across Tri-Cities region. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) reveals intense built-up areas throughout the study region, with hotspots at recent annexation boundaries. Notably, Johnson City and Bristol show alarming patterns of vegetation-to-built-up change, while Kingsport displays comparatively lower hotspot intensity despite significant urban expansion. This conversion intensifies soil imperviousness, reducing infiltration rates and contributing to urban flooding—a critical concern. These findings provide valuable insights for future research on the cascading effects of LULC change on flooding in Tri-Cities, Tennessee.