GRINDAVÍK, ICELAND: CIVILIZATION AT THE EDGE OF GEOLOGICAL CONSENT

Since 2021, the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, previously stable since the 13^th Century, has seen renewed geologic activity, including episodic surface deformation, seismicity, and effusive volcanism. This activity began in the remote Fagradsfjel area, but in late 2023, shifted to the Svartsengi system, where it threatened the Blue Lagoon tourist center, HS Orka geothermal power plant, and the coastal town of Grindavík. Magma-driven earthquakes and surface deformation built to a crescendo on Nov. 10, 2023, causing evacuation of the town, which has remained essentially unoccupied since. This was followed on Dec. 18 by the first of (currently) seven fissure eruptions along the Sundhnúkar crater chain. The on-going social response and structural measures, including lava barrier construction, have tested Icelandic resources. In Jan. of 2025, our group was invited to meet with Icelandic officials and Grindavík residents and document the disaster response in the context of risk management and so-called managed retreat. With a population of 3790 on the eve of its evacuation, Grindavik is small by US standards, but nearly 1% of Iceland’s population was displaced. The current volcanic disaster harkens back to the 1973 eruption in Vestmannaeyjar, and Icelanders view current events through the lens and legacy of 1973. In the modern case, the Icelandic response has been two-fold, including (1) massive lava barriers protecting the power plant, Blue Lagoon, and the town, and (2) buyouts of >90% of the ~1100 residential structures in the town. The barriers have been largely successful except where lava erupted from a fissure inside the town and destroyed 3 houses. Other structures have been damaged by fissures, extension, and cavities that formed in town, resulting in the one fatality to date. The buyouts are a novel strategy, meant to be temporary, but tailored to the uncertainty of this geological setting – i.e., with no current consensus on whether the event will continue for months, years, decades, or centuries. Vigorous debate on Grindavík policy continues, with residents pressing for expanded economic support, while others argue for fiscal limits. More broadly, discussion now includes whether the compassion and generosity that led to the sweeping buyouts may, in the end, undermine the long-term viability of the community.