HOUSEHOLD RESPONSE TO EVACUATION DECISION MAKING AND MESSAGING DURING WILDLAND FIRE EVENTS: A CASE STUDY OF ASHLAND, OREGON AND ADA COUNTY, IDAHO

Effective large-scale wildland fire evacuations rely on pre-planning and coordination across multiple agencies to manage real-time responses. Over the last 40 years, the frequency and intensity of wildfires have significantly increased, leading to a double of the average annual burn area. This trend is further exacerbated by rapid population growth in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), highlighting an urgent need for enhanced planning, organization, and coordination efforts. This study examines community responses to wildfires through two methods: 1) Using FlamMap wildfire simulations integrated into tabletop exercises with wildfire response authorities, aimed at gathering critical evacuation decision-making points and messaging strategies; and 2) a WUI-Wide survey to assess some households' responses to a previous wildfire and other households' expectations of their responses to a future wildfire. Collaboration with three WUI communities across two states allows us to identify key factors influencing critical evacuation intentions. We compare communities with historic large-scale evacuation experience, such as the City of Ashland, OR, to those without recent experience, like Ada County, ID. Additionally, we assess the alignment between intention versus actual household behavior during wildfire evacuations by analyzing communities impacted by wildfire evacuations in Valley County, ID, during the summer of 2024. We will describe how we developed and shared community-based wildfire evacuation scenarios with study area residents to explore the drivers of evacuation behavior and evacuation intentions, assessing the behavioral household response to wildfire evacuation warnings. Our shared results will also facilitate the refinement of pre-event hazard strategies used to foster greater community engagement and enhance local authorities’ preparedness and evacuation planning efforts.