PARAMETERIZED DATABASE OF ACTIVE FAULTS AND SIMULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

The datasets of the earthquakes from the active faults has a long history and there are many type studies of them. To estimate the timing and magnitude of the future events from these datasets, we should compile them by using uniform basis and make them into the database. In this presentation, I'd like to propose and discuss the idea of the parameterized database of active faults and the simulation system to estimate the future earthquakes based on that database.

In this presentation, I call the field survey data as the primary data, such as location, length of the fault, slip rate, timing of the event, and recent activity of the small earthquakes. These data are represented by the numerical datasets. The data, which is obtained from the calculation with the primary data, is called as the secondary data, such as the magnitude of the earthquake deduced from the fault length or amount of slip per event, the peak acceleration of ground motion, and the deformation pattern of crust. On the simulation system, we can search the parameters from the database of primary data and select a formula to obtain the secondary data.

For a start, I construct the parameterized database of active faults in Japan. And I will seek the opportunity to link the system to the other active fault database in other countries.