TESTING THE EFFICACY OF CLIMATE FORECAST MAPS AS A MEANS OF COMMUNICATING WITH POLICY MAKERS

Climate has a potential of affecting human life, sometimes in a serious way. For example, it determines kinds and amounts of crops, and causes disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and droughts. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of climate, particularly precipitation and temperature, greatly benefit people who are engaged in agriculture, as well as people who are in charge of policy making, water resource allocation, disaster control, and risk assessment.

One important characteristic of climate forecasts is that they are georeferenced, that is, precipitation or temperature is forecasted for specific locations on the earth. It then follows that the forecasts are disseminated in map form. Owing to recent advances in computer graphics technology, it has become possible to construct better-looking and more complex maps relatively easily. This, however, often begs the question of whether people who look at such maps can interpret them as the map makers intended.

Our research aims to examine (a) whether there are indeed misinterpretations of climate forecast maps and (b) if users find forecast maps persuasive enough to take them into account in decision making. To do that, precipitation forecast maps constructed by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction were shown to students in the master's program in Environmental Science and Policy. They were then asked questions designed to examine their understanding and interpretation of the maps, and the degree of effect of the maps on their decision-making behavior. The results will be discussed in terms of the difficulty that the students had understanding the maps, and the nature and types of misconceptions. Possible implications for the development of more effective communication vehicles, and for more widespread incorporation of climate forecast results into policy- and decision-making will also be discussed.