CAUSE AND EFFECT OR VICE VERSA? - RIVER FLOODING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PEOPLE OF PORT MARIA, ST. MARY, JAMAICA

Port Maria, is the Parish Capital of St.Mary, Jamaica. The importance of the town is mainly due to its coastal location on Jamaica’s Northcoast; one of the most frequented coastlines in the Caribbean by tourists. As such the main highway linking all areas along the northcoast passes through the town of Port Maria. The Port Maria River (Outram River) is a major feature of the town running alongside the highway. Since 2000 the town has been hit by many floods obstructing the free movement along the coast and damaging the town. Flood waters have risen to 2 metres high, shutting down the town and forcing the lower-class inhabitants to rebuild from the ground up each time. It must be noted that not just Port Maria, but several parishes on Jamaica’s northcoast have been experiencing such flooding especially during the Hurricane season (June through to December)

The location of Port Maria and the parish at large on the northeast of Jamaica, is the main reason for its being prone to the oncoming Hurricanes that form off the African coast. The effect of the Northeast Trade Winds is directly felt by these inhabitants. In tracking the flood events of the past in this town, it has been realised that precipitation activity has been much more frequent and intense with the main type of flooding experienced is riverine flooding. Is it that the carrying capacity of the river is now exceeded with the changing events? Is it the increases in infrastructure on the floodplain of the river that is the main issue? Or is it the input of a bridge with a lower floorboard the problem?

The aim of this work is to analyse the flooding by modelling the major flooding event of November 2006 in both steady and unsteady state and comparing results with other flood events that have occurred in the town in 2009 and 2011; the latter two associated with the passage of two tropical storms. The changing pattern of hurricane and storm activity is also looked at as well as changes in rainfall return periods. The conclusive data will show need to re-evaluate the carrying capacity of rivers and other forms of drainage to accommodate more frequent, shorter period rainfall, higher intensity precipitation events and more frequent hurricane events.