ANALYSIS OF CHINESE AND GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR KEY MINERALS IN THE COMING 20 YEARS

With rapid growth of the economy, China has become one of the world’s largest consumer countries for key minerals. In 2012, China’s consumption of coal, crude steel, copper and aluminum was 3.64 Bt, 0.67 Bt, 8.84 Mt and 21.45 Mt, respectively, which accounts for 50.2%, 44.1%, 43% and 46% of world’s consumption of these commodities. China’s huge demand for resources has vigorously driven fast development of the global mining industry. The quantities of minerals China and other BRIC economies will need in the coming 20 years has become a highly sensitive topic in both the mining and other industries?

1. China’s demand for crude steel will reach a peak during 2013 to 2015, with an estimated amount of 680–720 Mt per year, and thereafter will run high for seven to ten years. China’s cumulative demand in the coming 20 years will amount to 11.5 to 12.0 Bt for crude steel and 18.0 Bt for iron ore after deducting recyclable resources.

2 China’s demand for copper and aluminum will hit a peak during 2022 to 2025, with an annual demand of 130–150 Mt and 260–290 Mt, respectively. China’s cumulative demand in the coming 20 years will amount to 240–250 Mt for copper and 480–530 Mt for aluminum, with 1.5–1.6 Bt for bauxite after deducting recoverable resources.

3 It can be estimated that in the coming 20 years global cumulative consumption of crude steel will reach 39 Bt, which can be converted into 65 Bt of iron ore. By 2030, global cumulative consumption of iron ore will exceed 120 Bt.

4 It can be estimated that in the coming 20 years global cumulative consumption of copper and aluminum will reach 560 Mt and 1.3 Bt, with the latter converted into 5.0–5.5 Bt of bauxite. By 2030, global cumulative consumption of copper and bauxite will stick close to 1.3 Bt and 10 Bt, respectively.

By 2030, the total population in industrialized countries will account for one third of world population, and the remaining >5 billion will consume more mineral resources in pursuit of better lives. For the moment, many key mineral resources are far from meeting the long-term human demand and maintenance of sustainable development. Therefore, more arduous effort by our generation is required to discover much high-quality resources at low cost and with less environmental impact so as to meet the future demand for resources.