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Paper No. 3
Presentation Time: 1:40 PM

RESOURCES AND SUPPLY-DEMAND OVER THE VERY LONG TERM


GIURCO, Damien P.1, MOHR, Steve H.1 and MUDD, Gavin M.2, (1)Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway NSW, 2007, Australia, (2)Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Building 60, Clayton Campus, Monash University VIC, 3800, Damien.Giurco@uts.edu.au

Resourcing future generations requires an understanding of (i) resource availability (ii) resource demand and impacts from production and use (iii) options to increase resource availability or to reduce or substitute resource demand (Mason et al 2011).

With a quantitative focus mostly on (i) and (ii), this paper explores global commodity production projections to 2100. We combine the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model of Mohr (2010) to project future resource production for selected commodities, namely iron/steel, coal, copper, and lithium. We find that global copper production is expected to peak before 2040 and coal before 2020.

Options to reduce primary resource demand (iii) including through recycling are given for selected cases and key priorities by commodity are identified.

Finally, this work is placed in the broader context of literature on mineral and energy futures. Qualitative factors shaping future resource use and recycling are illustrated using the case of Vision 2040 – Innovation in Mining and Minerals.

Handouts
  • DENVER_Vision2040_GIURCO4SMALL8.ppt (3.7 MB)

    • Session No. 271

    P12. Resourcing Future Generations: What Needs to Be Done in the Near Term to Meet Demand for the Mineral Resources Needed in the Long Term?
    Tuesday, 29 October 2013: 1:00 PM-5:00 PM
    Mile High Ballroom 4AB (Colorado Convention Center)
    Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 45, No. 7, p.630
    © Copyright 2013 The Geological Society of America (GSA), all rights reserved. Permission is hereby granted to the author(s) of this abstract to reproduce and distribute it freely, for noncommercial purposes. Permission is hereby granted to any individual scientist to download a single copy of this electronic file and reproduce up to 20 paper copies for noncommercial purposes advancing science and education, including classroom use, providing all reproductions include the complete content shown here, including the author information. All other forms of reproduction and/or transmittal are prohibited without written permission from GSA Copyright Permissions.
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