Paper No. 3
Presentation Time: 1:40 PM


GIURCO, Damien P.1, MOHR, Steve H.1 and MUDD, Gavin M.2, (1)Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway NSW, 2007, Australia, (2)Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Building 60, Clayton Campus, Monash University VIC, 3800,

Resourcing future generations requires an understanding of (i) resource availability (ii) resource demand and impacts from production and use (iii) options to increase resource availability or to reduce or substitute resource demand (Mason et al 2011).

With a quantitative focus mostly on (i) and (ii), this paper explores global commodity production projections to 2100. We combine the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model of Mohr (2010) to project future resource production for selected commodities, namely iron/steel, coal, copper, and lithium. We find that global copper production is expected to peak before 2040 and coal before 2020.

Options to reduce primary resource demand (iii) including through recycling are given for selected cases and key priorities by commodity are identified.

Finally, this work is placed in the broader context of literature on mineral and energy futures. Qualitative factors shaping future resource use and recycling are illustrated using the case of Vision 2040 – Innovation in Mining and Minerals.

  • DENVER_Vision2040_GIURCO4SMALL8.ppt (3.7 MB)