Southeastern Section - 67th Annual Meeting - 2018

Paper No. 22-7
Presentation Time: 10:20 AM


O'NEAL, Donald W., Senior Manager System Analysis, Boeing, retired, 3017 Osprey Cir, Panama City, FL 32405

This is a proposal to use Aerospace Structural Analysis Techniques to analyze and predict earthquakes. Earthquakes are an extremely large energy event as the result of crust structural failure. Recent prediction methods using either statistics or tidal events are random at best. Tides do cause large forces on the earth's crust but only consider forces, not applied directions. Specific structural failure is related to not only forces but also to the directions of application(force as a vector). The advantage to this proposed method is that it can be used to analyze past earthquakes at the moment of occurrence for verification of the analysis model.

Earthquakes are caused by large forces from the earth's rotation, solar/lunar gravitational attraction, possibly other planet attractions such as Jupiter, along with the earth's own gravitation attraction. Existing surface motion, such as slippage along a fault, can be incorporated into the structural model as well as hard points (locations where there is no earth movement). Fault lines can resist only forces along the fault line (shear) and compression normal to the fault line. Tension applied can only reduce compression as the fault lines would just separate, possibly a critical condition. Ultimate failure is always related to shear fracture of the crust, releasing the energy. As such, failure at one of the hard points will cause an earthquake.

I suggest a Geological Society working group to select a fault line for analysis and to determine available earth properties, such as mass properties, plate shear strength, shear modulus of elasticity, surface movement, and variable depth along the selected fault.

  • EARTHQUAKES-APR PRESENTATION [Autosaved].pptx (47.1 kB)