CONSIDERATIONS FOR POST-FIRE HYDROLOGIC HAZARDS IN A WARMING CLIMATE (Invited Presentation)

Anthropogenic activities influencing the climate and landscape are increasing the frequency and size of wildfires as well as the areas in which they occur (e.g., in recent years, wildfire has been advancing into higher elevation terrain). These trends are all projected to continue into the future. Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, a necessary ingredient for post-wildfire debris flows, is also projected to intensify due to both the increased capacity for water vapor in the atmosphere with warming temperatures and changes in the atmospheric processes that produce precipitation. However, there is uncertainty in how much intensification will occur in across varying locations and atmospheric conditions. Combined, this highlights a potential for an increase in the frequency of damaging post-wildfire hydrologic hazards as well as expansion of the area impacted by these hazards. Additionally, other factors such as changing seasonality of precipitation may affect how communities prepare for post-fire hazards. In this presentation, I will provide an overview of various considerations that arise in a warming climate with respect to post-fire hydrologic hazards, focusing on weather and climate factors. These include wildfire and precipitation trends and projections for the western US, limitations associated with current atmospheric data and information, as well as emerging datasets and opportunities to support the study and mitigation of post-fire hydrologic hazards in a warming climate.