INTEGRATING FUTURE ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE IMPACTS INTO A GEOLOGICAL- AND CHEMICAL-BASED SUSTAINABILITY MODEL

Global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to evaluate the exposure of manufacturing operations of a United States-based multinational manufacturing company to future Anthropogenic climate impacts. Regional geographic and site specific geological and chemical data from 110 manufacturing sites in 18 countries were collected and referenced against the downscaled ensemble mean results using CMIP5 and the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) technique to the year 2100. The results were then integrated into an existing geological- and chemical-based sustainability model. The results strongly suggest that every site will experience some negative climate impacts with the most significant being increased (1) mean temperature, (2) drought, (3) frequency of extreme precipitation events. The results will be used to develop climate adaptation plans and will focus on each sites’ sensitivity to climate impacts and adaptive capacity.