EXPLORING DEEP TIME BIOGEOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS (Invited Presentation)

Ecological Niche Models (ENM), the set of different algorithms and workflows designed to obtain hypothetical maps of species, have been broadly used in studies on current biogeography, macroecology and conservation biology. The field experienced hot methodological debates around 10 years ago, when researchers tested the accuracy of the different algorithms, discussed about the measures to validate the models, debated about data selection and its impact on model results, and proposed different solutions to deal with the uncertainty of map predictions. This field has moved fast since then, and currently, palaeontologists are also applying these methods, in combination with deep time paleoclimatic layers, to map the potential suitable habitats for taxa across time. Now, we have paleoclimatic simulations that will allow us to explore deep time biodiversity dynamics, and also fine scale temporal interpolations of these simulations, that open the possibility to explore species past turnovers with an unprecedented temporal resolution. Here, I will summarize the main challenges that we face when using fossil data to calibrate a ENM, and I will give an overview of the future potential avenues for research.