ASSESSING THE SCALING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ECOLOGICAL CHANGE OVER THE LAST 140KYR

Much of the concern surrounding modern environmental change has to do with the extraordinary rate and magnitude of these changes. However, the historic rates and magnitudes of the climate and environmental changes that species are adapted to remains poorly constrained, especially for factors beyond temperature.

Here we leverage outputs from the BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models to produce the first exploration of North American terrestrial climate variability, covering the last 140 kyr. We first examine the correlations between climatic and environmental variables on timescales ranging from months to millennia during this interval. This resolution allows us to investigate the continuum of variability for several abiotic climate variables (including precipitation, specific humidity, and wind), as well as for model parameters associated with carbon storage and vegetation cover. We examine the rate and magnitude of climate change across a range of time scales, providing key context for better understanding both patterns of modern global environmental change and the effects these changes will have on ecosystems.